Dollar Holds Firm After Volatile Session
The U.S. dollar swung sharply after stronger-than-expected jobs data.
The DXY index hit an intraday high of 97.27.
However, the session ended near the middle of a wide range.
Price action formed a doji, signaling market indecision.
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 130K, crushing the 65K forecast.
Meanwhile, prior months saw only minor revisions.
The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%.
Wage growth rose 0.4% month-over-month.
Despite the headline strength, job losses spread across several sectors.
Government, leisure, education, and healthcare drove most gains.
Additionally, benchmark revisions cut 862K jobs.
That figure exceeded Powell’s projected 60K monthly adjustment.
As a result, rate cut expectations shifted.
Markets now fully price a 25bps cut in July instead of June.
Still, traders expect 51bps of easing in 2026.
Major FX Moves
EUR Stalls at Key Resistance
EUR/USD stalled at 1.1918, the September cycle high.
The next major resistance sits at 1.2082.
Sentiment currently drives price action.
ECB policy support remains mild despite strong U.S. data.
CHF Pulls Back After Strong Year
The Swiss franc, this year’s top performer, weakened after NFP.
Dollar strength pressured the pair for a third straight session.
GBP Holds Mid-Pack
Sterling posted a modest loss against the dollar.
Easing political uncertainty offered limited support.
However, PM Starmer still faces negotiation challenges.
Markets now eye UK Q4 GDP data.
Traders maintain high expectations for an April rate cut.
JPY Extends Rally
The yen surged for a third consecutive day.
USD/JPY broke sharply below the 100-day SMA at 154.50.
Political stability following Sunday’s election boosted sentiment.
Investors responded positively to Takaichi’s credibility message.
The next downside target sits near 152.14.
Further support rests at the 200-day SMA near 150.41.
AUD Hits Multi-Year Highs
The Australian dollar climbed to 0.7143.
That level marks a near four-year high.
RBA Deputy Governor comments supported the move.
He noted that many sectors of the economy perform well.
Nevertheless, weekly charts show overbought conditions.
U.S. Stocks React to Payroll Surprise
Wall Street closed mixed after the data release.
The S&P 500 ended flat at 6,941.
The Nasdaq gained 0.29% to 25,201.
Meanwhile, the Dow slipped 0.13% to 50,121.
Energy, Consumer Staples, and Materials led gains.
Conversely, Financials and Communication Services lagged.
Rising crude prices boosted energy stocks.
AI disruption concerns pressured financial shares.
Shopify beat revenue expectations and announced a buyback.
However, shares reversed and closed down 6.7%.
Robinhood dropped 8.9% after weaker revenue.
Crypto and options trading disappointed investors.
Ford exceeded revenue forecasts and raised 2026 profit guidance.
The stock finished 2% higher.
Asian Markets Mixed on Thin Liquidity
Asian equities traded higher but lacked conviction.
Liquidity remained thin due to a Japanese holiday.
The ASX 200 outperformed regional peers.
Financial stocks drove the gains.
CBA rallied after reporting a 5% profit increase.
The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite held steady.
The PBoC pledged continued loose monetary policy.
However, mixed inflation data capped upside momentum.
Gold ticked higher ahead of the NFP release.
Prices briefly touched $5,119 intraday.
Momentum remains mildly bullish after two steady sessions.
Day Ahead: UK Q4 GDP in Focus
Markets expect UK Q4 GDP at 0.1% quarter-over-quarter.
Year-over-year growth is forecast at 1.3%.
December growth may rise 0.3%.
Earlier production restarts boosted Q4 figures.
Growth momentum should carry into 2026.
Still, political noise clouds sentiment.
The Bank of England remains divided on policy.
Last week’s 5-4 vote surprised markets.
Traders now anticipate a 25bps cut in April.
However, expectations for further 2026 easing remain modest.
Chart of the Day: GBP/USD Struggles Higher
Cable broke above the 200-day SMA in January.
Price reached multi-year highs at 1.3868.
Subsequently, the pair corrected lower.
Support emerged near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3540.
Buyers stepped in at that zone.
The daily RSI moved back above 50, signaling momentum.
Currently, GBP/USD trades within a near-term range.
Resistance stands between 1.3620 and 1.3730.
